Three nations are ‘willing and capable’ of organising an assassination in Australia, an expert has warned.
ASIO director-general Mike Burgess revealed the threat on Tuesday night while giving the 2025 Lowy Lecture.
‘There is a realistic possibility a foreign government will attempt to assassinate a perceived dissident in Australia,’ he said.
‘We believe there are at least three nations willing and capable of conducting lethal targeting here. This threat is real.’
Mr Burgess did not mention the countries by name but added ‘we know who they are’.
A former senior public servant, who asked to remain anonymous, has speculated to the Daily Mail that these governments could be China, Russia and Iran.
He added that, while he is no longer privy to intelligence briefings, they are the most ‘obvious’ nations that come to mind but added the timing of the statement is puzzling.
‘US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a meeting which was kind of successful,’ he said.
The head of the ASIO has warned three nations are ‘willing and capable’ of organising an assassination in Australia (pictured, armed AFP officers at Parliament House in Canberra)
A former senior public servant has speculated these nations could be China Russia and Iran
‘So why would you make that sort of speech when there might be a glimmer when things could be normalising a bit?
‘You might expect this (speech) from politicians, and yet it is the head of internal security commenting on foreign actors.’
Security expert from Deakin University, Greg Barton speculated a similar list of potential countries with the capacity for overseas assassination in Australia.
‘The nations that have a track record of using assassination include Russia at the top of the list, Iran and North Korea,’ he said.
‘But also we had an incident several years ago when Mr Burgess spoke cryptically about nations (able to carry out) assassination and, in that case, it turned out to be India.’
Professor Barton added that other countries, including Cambodia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Nigeria, have also set a target on dissidents who are spread across the world.
‘It’s now the case that it’s easy to do this… because you can go through organised crime, but you can also use modern tracking devices and other electronic aids to find people,’ he said.
During his address to the Lowy Institute, Mr Burgess made the reference to the three countries to warn them directly.
The source questioned why the ASIO would issue this warning when there is a glimmer of hope that some international tensions are improving after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in October (pictured, both leaders in Beijing on November 9, 2017)
‘By mentioning them publicly I’m also putting them on notice that we know some of you are prepared to do this and we will do our damnedest to stop it before it happens,’ the ASIO boss said.
Some could try to hide their involvement by hiring criminal cut-outs, Mr Burgess said, referencing a similar tactic used by Iran when it ordered the 2024 firebombings at Melbourne’s Addas Synagogue and Sydney’s Lewis Continental Kitchen.
He also mentioned recently uncovered links between between pro-Russia influencers in Australia and an offshore media organisation that ‘almost certainly’ receives orders from Russian intelligence.
Another incident included a foreign intelligence service attempting to recruit Australians to gather information on the economy, critical minerals and AUKUS – the country’s nuclear submarine agreement with the US and UK.
Though Mr Burgess’s address did not name China, the spy chief was asked about the country’s absence.
‘I did not mention China in my remarks today… But how do you know I wasn’t talking about things China did, in my remarks today?’ he said.
He chose not to name China primarily because his address was about factors that fray Australia’s social fabric.
‘At the extreme end of that, that isn’t China… Although we do have some concerns there too,’ he said.
ASIO boss Mike Burgess said extremist groups have played a role in Australians’ disaffection
He named the neo-Nazi group, the National Socialist Network, as an example of extremist groups engaging in unpeaceful protest (pictured, NSN leader Thomas Sewell)
The internet’s ability to incubate disaffection, international conflicts like the war in the Gaza Strip, and extremist groups such as the National Socialist Network were all said to have played a role in the country’s deteriorating social cohesion.
‘Angry, alienated individuals are embracing anti-authority ideologies and conspiracy theories.. (they are) engaging in uncivil debate and unpeaceful protest,’ he said.
‘The way nationalist and racist violent extremists attempted to leverage the so-called March for Australia rallies is a case in point.’
‘The biggest neo-Nazi group, the National Socialist Network – or White Australia as it is rebranding itself – identified the demonstrations as a vehicle to raise its profile,’ he said.
‘It strategically and opportunistically exploited the organisers’ complaints about immigration and the cost of living.’
Mr Burgess also warned the Australian public against religious extremist group Hizb ut Tahrir which he said was ‘fuelling and normalising wider anti-Semitic narratives’.
‘While an entity such as Hizb ut Tahrir is religiously motivated, its provocative behaviour, offensive rhetoric and insidious strategy are very similar to the tactics of the National Socialist Network,’ he said.
‘The organisation’s condemnation of Israel and Jews attracts media attention and aids recruitment.
‘But it deliberately stops short of promoting onshore acts of politically motivated violence.’