In the 2024 presidential election, I predicted a hidden Republican voter surge that few saw coming. Now, many of those same blindered forecasters on the right and the left, are reading the tea leaves again and coming to wildly off-base conclusions. Believe me when I say: as the results trickle in from four critical off-cycle elections – in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City and California – on Tuesday, conservatives will have their heads in their hands as liberals will be jumping for joy. And both sides will be missing the forest for the trees. These races have long been foregone conclusions, but they’ll provide clues to how America may vote in the 2026 midterms, thus determining control of Congress and President Donald Trump’s ability to see his agenda through. Here’s what I’m watching on Tuesday:
Buried in New Jersey
All the reliable polls show Democratic Congresswoman and former Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill locked in tight race with Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli. A respected polling industry colleague calls the race a ‘jump ball’ and if I were simply reading the numbers – I’d agree with him. Just one or two points separate the candidates at this moment in time, putting the race squarely within the statistical margin of error. In the layman’s term, the contest looks like a dead heat. But take it from a White House pollster, polling doesn’t tell you everything. There’s no doubt that Ciattarelli’s boosters believe the Garden State has been transformed by the MAGA revolution. And, indeed, there is some truth to that. The New Jersey electorate was among those that shifted to the right in the 2024 presidential cycle. Polling averages showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Trump by up to 16 points, but she only won the state by six.
Trump also flipped five New Jersey counties from blue to red. And in Ciattarelli’s case, while he lost his 2021 run for New Jersey governor against Phil Murphy, he came within three points. Unfortunately for Jack, it still won’t be enough. Unlike Pennsylvania, which is now a pure toss up state, New Jersey Democrats still enjoy a six to seven percentage point leftward bias. I’m more interested in the vote among minority groups – black, Hispanic and Asian voters – who offset the white suburban highly-educated vote in 2024 and propelled Trump to victory. If these groups aren’t motivated to get to the polls or if they’re enticed back into the Democratic coalition in significant numbers that’ll spell trouble for Republicans in 2026.
Winsome gets seared!
Like the Garden State, the Old Dominion has been trending purple in recent presidential elections, but again that cannot overcome the Democrats’ structural advantages. One of Virginia’s oddest political quirks is that in every gubernatorial race dating back to 1978, the party that controls the White House loses the election for the governor’s seat. The only time this rule failed was in 2013, when President Barack Obama was in the Oval Office and Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the race. But every other time it has stuck. Even at the height of President Ronald Reagan’s popularity, the Republican party fell victim to this trend. Beyond the historical eccentricities of Virginia politics, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican, faces even stiffer headwinds.
Given Virginia’s proximity to Washington DC, there are an extraordinary number of federal workers who work in the Capital city but live in the Commonwealth. And they are overwhelmingly Democrat. Tens of thousands of them are now furloughed, as the federal government shutdown nears the record for the longest in history. Many of them likely have nothing better to do than vote. And in off-cycle elections such as thing, turnout is king. So, despite the charisma and debate stage talents of Earle-Sears, I’m confident that Democrat Abigail Spanberger will win. This race was never in reach.
Rotten Apple
Only the most delusional are holding out hope that deeply wounded mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo will be able to defeat Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani in the race to run New York City. A new survey released Monday showed Cuomo, who was forced to resign as governor in August 2021 under a cloud of sexual harassment allegations, within striking range of Mamdani. But this is a three-man race with Guardian Angels founder and perennial GOP mayoral loser Curtis Sliwa sucking up around 15 percent of the vote – nearly guaranteeing a Mamdani win. What does this race tell us about the 2026 midterms? Next to nothing.
It’s undeniable that Mamdani – a 34-year-old former state assemblyman, who has praised Hamas fundraisers, vowed to establish taxpayer-funded free grocery stores and called for a citywide freeze of rent-controlled apartments – is a hit with young voters who struggle to pay for a beer let alone a place to live. But he’ll be more of a drag on Democrats nationally than a help. There’s a reason former President Barack Obama didn’t endorse Mamdani until last week and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has not endorsed him at all. The Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic party is still outside the mainstream. While I fear for my friends in the Big Apple, Mamdani’s mayorship will be an anchor on the Left.
Prop’ing up the Dems
Perhaps no race on Tuesday should have more of an impact on the control of the House of Representatives than California Governor Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50. Prop 50 seeks to redraw the state’s congressional lines. Under a revised electoral map, the Golden State is expected to send an additional five Democrats to the House. And by all my measurements, the proposition’s success is a foregone conclusion. Outspent, outmanned and outmaneuvered, the campaign to defeat Prop 50 will fail. This race – more than any other – has become a referendum on Trump’s presidency. And even though Trump increased the GOP vote share in 45 of 58 California counties in the 2024 election, Republicans are leaving the state – and their electoral power is wanning. However, not all is lost for the American Right.
California gerrymandering efforts will be off set by analogous Republican efforts in state like Texas, Utah and Indiana. Republicans currently have a six-seat advantage in the House (with three vacancies). Add the five to eight seats that the GOP will pick up through their gerrymandering efforts – and we’re back to status quo. Brace for much sound and fury on Tuesday evening as Democrats storm to victory from the East Coast to the West, but I never expected Republicans to make in-roads in these races. The real thing to watch this election day is the groups that appealed to in 2024. If minority groups are fleeing the GOP and if the economy continues to sour then it will be time for the Republican party to sound the alarm. Because then control of Congress may be slipping out of reach.